When uranium supply lowers capacity factor

Date:10/07/2008 URL: http://www.thehindu.com/thehindu/seta/2008/07/10/stories/
2008071050021700.htm

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When uranium supply lowers capacity factor

Supplies worldwide are adequate for energy needs for at least 100 years

Growing demand and higher prices have spurred greater investment in exploration

Twenty countries mine uranium now. Iran is the latest to enter the field

Currently, the mismatch between uranium supply and demand is lowering the capacity factors (CF) of Indian pressurized heavy water reactors. The average CF stabilized to about 60 per cent in mid 90s and steadily increased to nearly 90 per cent during 2003.

It was only 50.4 per cent in 2007-08. In June 2008, Tarapur 3 & 4, each operable at 540 MWe operated at about 247MWe. Hopefully, it is a temporary phase.

How is the supply position world-wide? ‘Uranium 2007: Resources, Production and Demand,’ the latest version of the so called ‘Red Book,’ the most authentic public publication on uranium jointly published by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development /Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD/NEA) assures that new discoveries and re-evaluations of known conventional uranium resources show that supplies will be adequate for nuclear energy needs for at least 100 years at present consumption level (IAEA release, June 3, 2008).

As expected, growing demand and higher prices have spurred greater investment in exploration and led to larger identified conventional uranium resources over the past two years (IAEA release, June 3, 2008).

The Red Book estimates the identified amount of conventional uranium resources which can be mined for less than US$130/kg to be about 5.5 million tonnes, up from the 4.7million tonnes reported in 2005.
Undiscovered resources

“Undiscovered resources, i.e. uranium deposits that can be expected to be found based on the geological characteristics of already discovered resources, have also risen to 10.5 million tones”, the report revealed. This indicates an increase of 0.5 million tonnes compared to the previous edition of the report (NEA release, June 3).

New nuclear power reactors in the pipe line in China, India, Korea, Japan and the Russian Federation will influence uranium demand; the phase-out programmes underway in several European countries are another factor.

According to the Redbook 2007, apart from new builds, the planned plant life extensions should increase global installed nuclear capacity in the coming decades. Uranium demand is bound to increase. (IAEA, June 3, 2008)

OECD/NEA noted that at the end of 2006, world uranium production (39,603 tonnes) provided about 60 per cent of world reactor requirements (66,500 tonnes) for the 435 commercial nuclear reactors in operation.

The secondary sources drawn from government and commercial inventories made up the gap between supply and demand.
Long lead time

“Given the long lead time typically required to bring new resources into production, uranium supply shortfalls could develop if production facilities are not implemented in a timely manner”, the Red Book cautioned. (WNA, July 2008).

The uranium ore mined in India is of low grade (less than 0.1 per cent). The Atomic Minerals Directorate for Exploration and Research (AMD) continues uranium exploration in virtually hundreds of locations in several states and drilling and geochemical surveys extensively at many sites including those in Meghalaya, A.P., Rajasthan and Karnataka.

In 2007-08, the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) updated the uranium resources to1,07,268 tonnes of U3O8 (DAE Annual Report 2007-08). The Uranium Corporation of India Ltd (UCIL), which DAE set up in 1967, operates four mines (Jaduguda, Bhatin, Narwapahar and Turamdih) and plans to start a few more.
Installed capacities

The quantity of uranium ore produced and processed by Narwapahar mine and Jaduguda Plant respectively exceeded their installed capacities.

Commissioning of Banduhurang, the first open pit uranium mine in June 2007 is a milestone in UCIL’s endeavour to utilize low grade uranium ore in the country (DAE Annual Report, 2007-08).

K.S.PARTHASARATHY

Former Secretary, AERB

( ksparth@yahoo.co.uk )

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